tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31262592.post5157443941338645256..comments2023-11-05T03:18:15.958-05:00Comments on Hound Dog's LPGA Blog: Who Has A Chance?Hound Doghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14551723761253381230noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31262592.post-76259861223412100512008-06-21T00:38:00.000-04:002008-06-21T00:38:00.000-04:00Consider this a p.s. to your excellent analysis!Consider <A HREF="http://mlyhlss.blogspot.com/2008/06/quantifying-dominance-part-1-wins-and.html" REL="nofollow">this</A> a p.s. to your excellent analysis!The Constructivisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242149985581771922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31262592.post-14251264155411380782008-06-19T06:43:00.000-04:002008-06-19T06:43:00.000-04:00Wonderful analysis. Thanks for your work.Wonderful analysis. Thanks for your work.svensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02719708454621600655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31262592.post-42624154447392927232008-06-18T14:03:00.000-04:002008-06-18T14:03:00.000-04:00That is entirely possible, Diane. I just wasn't a...That is entirely possible, Diane. I just wasn't addressing that here and I have no idea how I would address it statisically. That would be cool to figure out, though.<BR/><BR/>TC, maybe we need to start taking screenshots of the lpga.com board around the 63-hole mark? Either that or we need some more LPGA stat geeks around here!Hound Doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14551723761253381230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31262592.post-45262855886953554362008-06-18T13:07:00.000-04:002008-06-18T13:07:00.000-04:00And my point is that it seems the chance of an eli...And my point is that it seems the chance of an elite player showing up with her A game is directly proportional to the number of other elite players of the field. I base my conclusion solely on non-statistical observation and with absolute respect for anyone who has an A game.dianehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12559875662870187835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31262592.post-71985106570641592982008-06-18T11:00:00.000-04:002008-06-18T11:00:00.000-04:00I hear you on both counts! I have to assume that ...I hear you on both counts! I have to assume that as the stats get more relevant as the rounds pile up, your method will get better and better as the season goes on. And yeah, tracking the 63-hole leader's relation to her closest competitors thing would be tough, but you could start by looking at the 4th-round pairings page and comparing scorecards from there rather than the leaderboard. The Constructivisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242149985581771922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31262592.post-32936844708969973692008-06-18T06:56:00.000-04:002008-06-18T06:56:00.000-04:00TC, the "three shots from the 63-hole leader" thin...TC, the "three shots from the 63-hole leader" thing is similar to that high-volume research method I was talking about at the beginning of the post. I was looking at players within 3-4 shots of the 54-hole leader (or 36-hole in shorter events). I don't know how you could even research the 63-hole topic - where would you find how every player stood at that point? The boards prior to the final Hound Doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14551723761253381230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31262592.post-59364033906451695312008-06-18T00:55:00.000-04:002008-06-18T00:55:00.000-04:00Nice post! I've been playing the Pakpicker for ar...Nice post! I've been playing the Pakpicker for around a year and trying to take into account rankings, past performances, recent trends, and key season stats. So I've done a fair amount of research, although nothing all that serious in that span. I don't put anyone in among my 12 picks (and 3 alts) whom I don't think has a good chance to win. Almost every week I feel like I'm leaving out The Constructivisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242149985581771922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31262592.post-30317369751423179662008-06-17T17:36:00.000-04:002008-06-17T17:36:00.000-04:00I assume you're referring to the last paragraph, b...I assume you're referring to the last paragraph, but I'm not saying that at all.<BR/><BR/>My point there was that as good as Ochoa and Sorenstam are, a certain percent of the time they don't show up with their A game and if there isn't a good number of other elite players in the field when that happens, a less-than-elite player has (at least three times in the last 16 months) won that event Hound Doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14551723761253381230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31262592.post-11455098876839222062008-06-17T15:27:00.000-04:002008-06-17T15:27:00.000-04:00Essentially what you're saying is that no matter h...Essentially what you're saying is that no matter how unintentional, the highest rated players take a mental or motivational vacation whenever they compete in a less-than-stellar field event. Do I have that correct?dianehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12559875662870187835noreply@blogger.com